The 4th Horseman

Why Pandemics Coincide With Economic Collapses

This essay is part of a series comparing the twilights of (1) Rome's slave-based economic system and (2) the Middle Ages' feudal system to (3) today's capitalist economic system. In addition to the broad life cycles of these economic systems, we'll note similarities between infectious diseases and changes in communication technologies common to all three eras. Finally, we'll see how belief systems rise and fall in tandem with these broad economic systems. When these systems seize up and stop functioning, people begin questioning authority. And that, in turn, leads to collapses of bedrock conceptions of reality itself.

---

Introduction

Pandemics often accompany major economic shifts. That’s partly because food production is a crucial economic activity that, when disrupted, leaves people less healthy and more vulnerable to pathogens. But it’s also because ruling classes respond to plagues in ways that reveal their exploitative relationship with working classes. The Black Death is a classic example from the pages of history. Because major economic shifts feel like the end of the world to those who live through them, this pattern is symbolized in the Book of Revelation as the Pale Horse, one of the four horsemen of the apocalypse.

Apocalypse

The first two horsemen of the apocalypse predictably represent conquest and war, which are fixtures of any doomsday scenario. But the third horseman makes the economic nature of armageddon clear and undeniable; he carries a set of scales and quotes commodity prices like a barker on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

It is, however, the fourth horseman of the apocalypse that is the most enduring figure from the mysterious book of Revelation. From Agatha Christie to Johnny Cash, the Pale Horse is still capturing imaginations two thousand years after John wrote Revelation in exile on the Greek island of Patmos.

The Pale Horse represents plague.

The book of Revelation dates back to the Fall of Rome. In those days, the new Christian faith was exploding in popularity, in no small part because of its apocalyptic prophecies. Those prophecies seemed impossible to doubt as Roman civilization lapsed into economic chaos. Especially when the Pale Horse arrived in Rome.

The Antonine Plague was a major turning point for the Roman Empire. All the dying caused an acute labor shortage and sharply reduced tax receipts. The ruling class had no choice but to debase the Roman currency and accept the mortal blow of runaway inflation. Public faith in the pagan state authority collapsed, and Christianity filled the void when it became the new state religion.

The Black Death

The Black Death is the most infamous example of a plague coinciding with the end of the world. Between 1347 and 1351, it wiped out a third of the European peasantry, causing an acute labor shortage. With so many fields lying fallow for lack of workers, the surviving peasants realized they could play one feudal lord off against another in bidding wars for their labor.

The nobility was used to giving orders, not entertaining demands. So, in a desperate bid to preserve the old feudal class structure, they tried to enforce a cap on the price of labor.

But this only plunged Europe into further political chaos. In 1381, for example, tens of thousands of English peasants revolted and marched on London. Thanks to the Black Death, there was no going back to the old Medieval production roles of lord and serf. The modern economy—where workers rent out their labor to the highest bidder—was born from that plague.

In the aftermath of the Black Death, the survivors could not have known that it was darkest just before the dawning of the Renaissance and the Reformation. They assumed—like the denizens of the late Roman Empire—that they were living through the end times foretold in the book of Revelation. Once again, the symbolism in that book eerily matched the chaos that comes when economic systems reach the end of their lifecycles.

Conclusion

Sometimes as a cause and sometimes as an effect, plagues coincide so often with the sunset of major economic systems that the gospel writer John used the Pale Horse as a symbol of the end times. Today, in the 21st century, we’ve just received a visit from the Pale Horse. The COVID-19 pandemic was far less lethal than the Black Death or the Apenine Plague. But—whatever your opinion of their response to that crisis—it’s beyond debate that faith in public officials was badly eroded by the recent pandemic. Furthermore, it comes just as technological advancements like ChatGPT are making employees less and less relevant to the production process, threatening to upend our system of employees and employers. From a historical perspective, it’s fascinating to notice that the Pale Horse rides again as the sun sets on the capitalist system of production.

---

Further Materials

And I saw when the Lamb opened one of the seals, and I heard, as it were the noise of thunder, one of the four beasts saying, Come and see.
And I saw, and behold a white horse: and he that sat on him had a bow; and a crown was given unto him: and he went forth conquering, and to conquer.
And when he had opened the second seal, I heard the second beast say, Come and see.
And there went out another horse that was red: and power was given to him that sat thereon to take peace from the earth, and that they should kill one another: and there was given unto him a great sword.
And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand.
And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.
And when he had opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth beast say, Come and see.
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
The Book of Revelation KJV, Chapter 6:1-8